AUD/USD Rally Stalls Just Shy of Former Support Line

Share This: DailyFX.com – Daily Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -The last updated noted that “AUD/USD tested the September low before turning up. The ‘false break’ could result in some pain for breakout traders…which implies a rally attempt (short term). 3 handles later, shorts could get a reprieve from the former support line.” AUD/USD has pulled back but there are signs that this is a more important low. For more analysis and trade setups (exact entry and exit), visit SB Trade Desk original sourceDailyFX.com – Daily Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -The last updated noted that “AUD/USD tested the September low before turning up. The ‘false break’ could result in some pain for breakout traders…which implies a rally attempt (short term). 3 handles later, shorts could get a reprieve from the former support line.” AUD/USD has pulled back but there are signs that this is a more important low. For more analysis and trade setups (exact entry and exit), visit SB Trade Desk original source Source from..DailyFX

GBP/USD Rebounds; Watch 1.4565

Share This: DailyFX.com – Daily Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -“After holding up for several days, GBP/USD broke below the line that extends off of the 1985 and 2009 lows. The expansion of the 2015 range is 1.3202. If the current drop is towards this level, then 1.4400 (underside of the long term line) likely provides resistance.” 1.44 was good resistance last week. The rate has traded around the level for the last several days and may be geared up for a run on the 2015 low at 1.4565. For more analysis and trade setups (exact entry and exit), visit SB Trade Desk original sourceDailyFX.com – Daily Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -“After holding up for several days, GBP/USD broke below the line that extends off of the 1985 and 2009 lows. The expansion of the 2015 range is 1.3202. If the current drop is towards this level, then 1.4400 (underside of the long term line) likely provides resistance.” 1.44 was good resistance last week. The rate has traded around the level for the last several days and may be geared up for a run on the 2015 low at 1.4565. For more analysis and trade setups (exact entry and exit), visit SB Trade Desk original source Source from..DailyFX

EUR/USD 1.1060 Still a Biggie

Share This: DailyFX.com – Daily Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -As a reminder, “The 20 day range (about a rolling month) stands at 1.69%. This is the tightest range since early December 2014. Several weeks later, EUR/USD dropped from above 1.24 to nearly 1.11 in about 5 weeks. Point is, strong trends tend to succeed tight ranges. Pay attention to SSI, which may help ‘catch’ the move. As always, reward/risk is paramount so be aware that 1.1060 looms as resistance (December high, 200 day average, and trendline).” Last Thursday, I put out a video warning of a ‘bear trap’ in the USD (bull trap in EUR/USD). The USD made trend highs on Friday while the EUR/USD held the range (implication is bullish EUR/USD). Those that were bearish on the USDOLLAR dip likely threw in the towel on Friday’s rally. For more analysis and trade setups (exact entry and exit), visit SB Trade Desk original sourceDailyFX.com – Daily Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -As a reminder, “The 20 day range (about a rolling month) stands at 1.69%. This is the tightest range since early December 2014. Several weeks later, EUR/USD dropped from above 1.24 to nearly 1.11 in about 5 weeks. Point is, strong trends tend to succeed tight ranges. Pay attention to SSI, which may help ‘catch’ the move. As always, reward/risk is paramount so be aware that 1.1060 looms as resistance (December high, 200 day average, and trendline).” Last Thursday, I put out a video warning of a ‘bear trap’ in the USD (bull trap in EUR/USD). The USD made trend highs on Friday while the EUR/USD held the range (implication is bullish EUR/USD). Those that were bearish on the USDOLLAR dip likely threw in the towel on Friday’s rally. For more analysis and trade setups (exact entry and exit), visit SB Trade Desk original source Source from..DailyFX

China Eases Lending Standards to Boost Housing – Will it Work?

Share This: DailyFX.com – This daily digest focuses on market sentiment, new developments in China’s foreign exchange policy, changes in financial market regulations and Chinese-language economic coverage in order to keep DailyFX readers up-to-date on news typically covered only in Chinese-language sources. – China’s central bank cut the minimum down payment ratios for mortgages to stimulate the housing sector. – The iron and steel industry in China reported negative profit in 2015 due to over-production. – Luxembourg has become the largest non-Asian yuan offshore center for yuan-denominated bonds. To receive reports from this analyst,sign up for Renee Mu’s distribution list. Sina News: China’s most important online media source, similar to CNN in the US. They also own a Chinese version of Twitter, called Weibo, with around 200 million active usersmonthly. – China’s central bank announced that the required mortgage down payment in the cities without purchase restrictions will be reduced to 20 percent from 25 percent for the first-home buyers. The new policy aims to support the property market and reduce the stockpile of unsold homes. Last December, the Chinese government has released five key tasks to be done in 2016. One of them is to reduce the rising home inventory. The minimum down payment for the second-home purchases is also reduced, cut to 30 percent from 40 percent. Besides helps to the property market, the new policy will also encourage borrowings from banks, which are now having shrinking business in the slowing economy. – For Chinese iron and steel industry, winter is not over yet. According to a report released by China Iron & Steel Association, the industry’s CSPI Index in December fell by 32.16% from a month earlier. The total profit of the industry in 2015 dropped to a negative reading of 64.53 billion yuan. Over 50% of member companies reported losses in 2015. One of the top five tasks in 2016 for China is to deal with the overcapacity issue. The iron and steel industry report shows that the country still has a long way to go. – Overall tone on the stock market from Sina News: Mixed. SAFE: China’s foreign exchange regulator. – The foreign exchange regulator released data of QFII and RQFII programs in January. These figures can be used as indicators for Chinese capital flows controls. QFII is short for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors, who are allowed to purchase securities in mainland China with non-yuan currencies. RQFII is RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors who are allowed to purchase securities with the yuan. The QFII quota issued in January was $80.795 billion, falling by $275 million from the previous month. The January RQFII quota was 469.825 billion yuan, increasing by 25.5 billion yuan. China Stock News:Chinese leading online media of financial news Luxembourg has become the largest non-Asian offshore center for yuan-denominated bonds, which are also called as dim sum bonds. As of the end of October, yuan-denominated bonds issued at Luxembourg have taken up 43% of total yuan bonds issued in non-Asian regions. London […]

EURUSD Consolidation Break Imminent- Levels To Know

Share This: DailyFX.com – Talking Points EURUSD approaching apex of multi-month consolidation formation Updated targets & invalidation levels Event Risk on Tap This Week EURUSD Daily Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0 Technical Outlook: EURUSD has continued to consolidate into the apex of a formation darting back to the December high with the pair struggling to mount resistance at 1.0924. This level is defined by the December reversal high-day close and converges on basic trendline resistance over the next few days. A topside break of the formation is favored eyeing resistance objectives at 1.0970 (100DMA) & 1.1051 (200DMA). Note that this level coincides with basic TL resistance dating back to the August high. More significant resistance is eyed at 1.1120 where the 61.8% retracement of the October decline converges on the upper median-line parallel into the close of the week / open of next week. Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the “Traits of Successful Traders” series. EURUSD 30min Notes:The consolidation can be seen more clearly here on the 30min chart and we’ll be looking for a break of this range to offer guidance on the euro’s next leg. A topside breach is favored and so we’ll be looking to buy pullback’s / long-triggers while above the weekly opening range lows with a breach of the highs targeting the aforementioned resistance objectives. A break below the figure invalidates our immediate long-approach with such a scenario eyeing support targets at 1.0769 & 1.0724/34. Note that the 2016 opening-range low comes in at 1.0709/10 and a break below this objective threshold would put the broader short bias back in play. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 23-26pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into the close of the week with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release likely to fuel volatility in the dollar crosses. For updates on these setups and more trades throughout the week, subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount! Relevant Data Releases Other Setups in Play: Webinar: Aussie Crosses at Key Inflection Points Ahead of RBA EURAUD Approaches Critical Support- Longs Favored Above 1.5300 AUDJPY Following 2016 Trade Plan- Time to Reload AUDUSD Rally Accelerates into Resistance- 7037 in Play GBPJPY Coiling For Next Big Move- Breach of 170.50 to Fuel Recovery —Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or ClickHere to be added to his email distribution list Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET) original sourceDailyFX.com – Talking Points EURUSD approaching apex of multi-month consolidation formation Updated targets & invalidation levels Event Risk on Tap This Week EURUSD Daily Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0 Technical Outlook: EURUSD has continued to consolidate into the apex of a formation darting back to the December high with the pair […]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Looking to Sell at 0.71 Figure

Share This: DailyFX.com – To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE Talking Points: AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Pending short at 0.7102 Australian Dollar drops most in 3 weeks, hints bearish trend is resuming Looking for corrective bounce to get short just above 0.71 vs. US Dollar The Australian Dollar turned sharply lower against its US namesake, putting in the largest daily decline in three weeks. Positioning suggests the longer-term down trend may be resuming after the currency pair recovered to a monthly high having found support above the 0.68 figure. From here, a daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7023 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% level at 0.6950. Alternatively, a reversal above the 61.8% Fib retracement at 0.7136 paves the way for a test of the 76.4% threshold at 0.7209. Prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will establish an entry order to sell the pair at 0.7102 in line with our 2016 fundamental forecast. If triggered, the trade will initially aim for 0.7023 and carry a stop-loss activated on a daily close above 0.7141. How are FXCM traders positioned in AUD/USD? Find out here. original sourceDailyFX.com – To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE Talking Points: AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Pending short at 0.7102 Australian Dollar drops most in 3 weeks, hints bearish trend is resuming Looking for corrective bounce to get short just above 0.71 vs. US Dollar The Australian Dollar turned sharply lower against its US namesake, putting in the largest daily decline in three weeks. Positioning suggests the longer-term down trend may be resuming after the currency pair recovered to a monthly high having found support above the 0.68 figure. From here, a daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7023 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% level at 0.6950. Alternatively, a reversal above the 61.8% Fib retracement at 0.7136 paves the way for a test of the 76.4% threshold at 0.7209. Prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will establish an entry order to sell the pair at 0.7102 in line with our 2016 fundamental forecast. If triggered, the trade will initially aim for 0.7023 and carry a stop-loss activated on a daily close above 0.7141. How are FXCM traders positioned in AUD/USD? Find out here. original source Source from..DailyFX

USDOLLAR Last Gasp Rally; Was that the Top?

Share This: DailyFX.com – Daily Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -Last Thursday (1/28), I published a video warning of a bear trap for the USD. In other words, those that were turning bearish on short term weakness were at risk of getting run over BEFORE the real top was in place. The USDOLLAR rallies to new trend highs the next day and has since backed off. The move has the ‘feel’ of a ‘last gasp’. Weakness below the 3 month trendline (red line) would confirm as much. For more analysis and trade setups (exact entry and exit), visit SB Trade Desk original sourceDailyFX.com – Daily Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -Last Thursday (1/28), I published a video warning of a bear trap for the USD. In other words, those that were turning bearish on short term weakness were at risk of getting run over BEFORE the real top was in place. The USDOLLAR rallies to new trend highs the next day and has since backed off. The move has the ‘feel’ of a ‘last gasp’. Weakness below the 3 month trendline (red line) would confirm as much. For more analysis and trade setups (exact entry and exit), visit SB Trade Desk original source Source from..DailyFX

Crude Trendline Confluence Rejects Advance

Share This: DailyFX.com – Weekly Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -The last few crude updates noted that “the test for this bounce is a former support line, which is about 33.50 over the next few days. A push above that level would be viewed as a positive development…volatile conditions could certainly lead to an ‘overshoot’.” Crude ‘overshot’, trading to 34.79 and has since wiped out a good deal of the rally. As long as price is below channel resistance, focus is lower. For more analysis and trade setups, visit SB Trade Desk original sourceDailyFX.com – Weekly Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -The last few crude updates noted that “the test for this bounce is a former support line, which is about 33.50 over the next few days. A push above that level would be viewed as a positive development…volatile conditions could certainly lead to an ‘overshoot’.” Crude ‘overshot’, trading to 34.79 and has since wiped out a good deal of the rally. As long as price is below channel resistance, focus is lower. For more analysis and trade setups, visit SB Trade Desk original source Source from..DailyFX

Gold Back for More at Well-Defined 1130

Share This: DailyFX.com – Daily Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -The last update noted that “1130 (2014 low and close to the 200 day avg) does loom as resistance for the gold price. A break above 1130 would be viewed as a positive in what may be an attempt at forming a major bottoming pattern.” Clearly, 1130 is no joke for the gold price. Seasonals are positive into mid-February for the yellow metal but the 200 day average, (new) channel resistance, and the 2014 low all cluster around 1130. If gold has turned the corner, then 1113 should provide support. For more analysis and trade setups (exact entry and exit), visit SB Trade Desk original sourceDailyFX.com – Daily Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Automate trades with Mirror Trader and see ideas on other USD crosses -The last update noted that “1130 (2014 low and close to the 200 day avg) does loom as resistance for the gold price. A break above 1130 would be viewed as a positive in what may be an attempt at forming a major bottoming pattern.” Clearly, 1130 is no joke for the gold price. Seasonals are positive into mid-February for the yellow metal but the 200 day average, (new) channel resistance, and the 2014 low all cluster around 1130. If gold has turned the corner, then 1113 should provide support. For more analysis and trade setups (exact entry and exit), visit SB Trade Desk original source Source from..DailyFX

New Zealand Dollar Gains After Lowest Jobless Rate in 7 Years

Share This: DailyFX.com – Talking Points: New Zealand Dollar gained after the country’s labor data beat estimates 4Q unemployment rate 5.3% vs 6.1% forecast and 6.0% in 3Q Stronger labor market may help stoke growth and CPI in New Zealand See how retail traders are positioned in the New Zealand Dollar with the DailyFX SSI. The NZD/USD exchange rate rallied after New Zealand’s labor statistics crossed the wires. The country’s fourth quarter unemployment rate surpassed expectations with a print of 5.3 percent, the lowest mark since March 2009. Economists estimated a 6.1 percent reading. However, the participation rate fell below its forecast of 68.9 percent and the revised prior of 68.7 percent to 68.4 percent for the quarter. The quarterly and yearly job gains for the same period grew at a faster rate than forecasted. Employment change was 0.9 percent (QoQ) versus the 0.8 percent anticipation and the -0.5 percent revised prior. The year-on-year figure showed a print of 1.3 percent as opposed to the 1.1 percent estimate and the third quarter’s 1.5 percent. Average hourly earnings came in at 0.2 percent (QoQ), lower than the 0.5 percent expectation and the previous 0.9 percent figure. A strengthening labor market may help stoke growth and inflation in New Zealand which may make the RBNZ less likely to cut interest rates in the near-term. At the central bank’s January rate decision, it noted that further easing may be needed but that CPI and growth are expected to increase in 2016. original sourceDailyFX.com – Talking Points: New Zealand Dollar gained after the country’s labor data beat estimates 4Q unemployment rate 5.3% vs 6.1% forecast and 6.0% in 3Q Stronger labor market may help stoke growth and CPI in New Zealand See how retail traders are positioned in the New Zealand Dollar with the DailyFX SSI. The NZD/USD exchange rate rallied after New Zealand’s labor statistics crossed the wires. The country’s fourth quarter unemployment rate surpassed expectations with a print of 5.3 percent, the lowest mark since March 2009. Economists estimated a 6.1 percent reading. However, the participation rate fell below its forecast of 68.9 percent and the revised prior of 68.7 percent to 68.4 percent for the quarter. The quarterly and yearly job gains for the same period grew at a faster rate than forecasted. Employment change was 0.9 percent (QoQ) versus the 0.8 percent anticipation and the -0.5 percent revised prior. The year-on-year figure showed a print of 1.3 percent as opposed to the 1.1 percent estimate and the third quarter’s 1.5 percent. Average hourly earnings came in at 0.2 percent (QoQ), lower than the 0.5 percent expectation and the previous 0.9 percent figure. A strengthening labor market may help stoke growth and inflation in New Zealand which may make the RBNZ less likely to cut interest rates in the near-term. At the central bank’s January rate decision, it noted that further easing may be needed but that CPI and growth are expected to increase in 2016. original source Source from..DailyFX