Global macro overview for 17/11/2016:
The Crude Oil Inventories data released yesterday revealed another rise in the stockpiles. Market participants expected a decrease this week from 2432k barrels to 1267k barrels, but the figure revealed was at the level of 5274k barrels. Meanwhile, OPEC members will assemble again on November 30th in Vienna and will try again to agree on a cap in production to stabilize oil prices. Nevertheless, there are serious doubts whether the agreement will be reached as Qatar, Algeria, and Venezuela are working behind the scenes to reach a consensus. If there is no agreement again, the prices might fall even more.
USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair is trading under its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, but still holds above its key horizontal support at 108.35. The technical indicators are mixed, and calling for caution. Even though a continuation of the consolidation at the current stage cannot be ruled out, its extent might be limited by 108.35.
The gold price continues fluctuating within a sideways range between the 1,211.31 support and the 1,249.94 resistance. Thus, we still keep our outlook neutral until the price manages to breach one of these levels and detect its next track clearly. Note that a break of 1,211.31 levels will extend the correctional bearish wave to target the 1,172.68 area; while a breach of 1,249.94 represents initial positive factor that supports the attempts to regain the main bullish trend. Upside targets will begin at 1,297.74 and extend towards the previously recorded top at 1,375.00. The expected trading range for today is between the 1,211.00 support and the 1,249.94 resistance.
The silver price gradually crawls upwards approaching from retesting the 17.43 level, which represents 50% Fibonacci level that was broken previously. Stochastic reaches the overbought areas thresholds, while the EMA50 forms continuous negative pressure on the intraday and short-term trading. Therefore, we still suggest the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin at 16.56 and extend to 15.49 after breaking the previous level. Remember that it is important to hold below 17.43 to continue the suggested bearish bias. The expected trading range for today is between the 16.56 support and the 17.43 resistance.