The events of the last two weeks clearly show that investors are not ready to fully enter the market for cheaper shares of companies against the background of coronavirus. This dynamic is also fully confirmed by the behavior of the US dollar.Last week, a generally positive attitude of investors towards buying stocks of companies was noted in the markets. On this wave, government bonds of economically strong countries were sold, the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc, decreased, and the dollar declined significantly against major currencies. The reason for this was the announcement by the Fed, the US Treasury, and other major global Central Banks of the broadest incentive measures. But this week, the mood turned 180 degrees, already against the background of the first economic statistics coming out over the last coronavirus time. They turned out to be extremely negative for Europe and America, although on the contrary, the figures from China were optimistic.Why does the market react like that? This is due to the fact that there are reasonable expectations that until demand in Europe and North America is restored, and these are the main consumers of Chinese products, active production in the…
Higher linear regression channel: direction – downward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction – downward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) – upward.
The GBP/USD currency pair starts the fourth trading day of the week with a rather weak (for current realities) movement along with the Murray level of “3/8”-1.2451. Over the past few days, the pound/dollar pair has worked out this level several times, but never managed to gain a foothold above it or, on the contrary, push off from it and start a downward correction. Thus, we believe that traders have come to a certain “point of equilibrium” – the balance of supply and demand. In order for the pair to continue the upward trend or complete it, you need serious fundamental reasons or the entry of major players into the currency market with large transactions. During the past day, macroeconomic statistics from overseas could support the US dollar (as was the case with the euro currency), however, quite unexpectedly, the correlation through the US dollar was broken in the last two days. Before that, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs moved almost identically with adjustments for volatility.
In principle, there is no news from the UK at the moment. Except for new reports…
Higher linear regression channel: direction – downward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction – downward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.
The fourth trading day of the week begins with the continuation of the downward movement, which was initially identified as a correction. However, at the moment, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair are fixed below the moving average line, so the trend is changed to a downward one. The same can be said for the Ichimoku indicator system, where the price overcame the Kijun-sen line. Thus, now the movement can continue with the goal of the Murray level of “1/8”-1.0864 or lower. However, we already warned in yesterday’s article that the current downward movement may be nothing more than a “correction against a correction”. Thus, according to all the canons of the size of the corrective movement, it can end in the area of 1.0833-1.0893. If this hypothesis is correct, then the downward movement will not continue for long. Moreover, the movement to the south means the growth of the US currency. Yesterday, macroeconomic statistics supported the dollar. However, in addition to statistics, there is now a much more important “epidemic factor” in the world. And, according to the latest information,…
Who will reign? The US dollar or noble metals? Here’s a comprehensive analysis of options for the movement of #USDX vs Gold & Silver (DAILY) in April 2020
Minor operational scale (daily time frame)
US dollar index
The movement of the #USDX dollar index in April 2020 will be determined depending on the development and the direction of breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.80 – 99.90 – 101.10) of the Minor operational scale forks. We look at the details of movement inside this equilibrium zone on the animated chart.
The upward movement of the dollar index can be continued in case of breakdown of the resistance level of 101.10 on the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the forks of the operational Minor scale and the targets of this movement will be :
– the final Shiff Line Minor (101.80);
– maximum 102.99;
with the prospect of reaching the warning line UWL38.2 (103.50) of the Minuette operational scale forks.
Meanwhile, the downward movement of #USDX will become relevant in the event of a breakdown of the support level 98.80 at the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks…
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 153p (high).
The EUR/USD pair continued the downward movement on the third trading day of the week. After a short respite, the downward movement resumed, the Kijun-sen line was overcome, and the euro/dollar pair has currently worked out the Senkou Span B line, which can also not be delayed for a long time. Thus, the chances that the downward movement will continue to increase significantly during today’s trading. However, there is also reason to believe that we are now witnessing a correction against a correction. Judge for yourselves: we observed a strong drop in the currency pair in the period from March 9 to March 23, and then a strong growth from March 23 to March 27, which totaled approximately 60% of the previous fall. Now we can observe a correctional decline already against the growth of March 23–27. Given the fact that the volatility of the pair is slowly decreasing (so far 122 points have been completed so far), there really is reason to expect a smooth calm of the currency market. If this hypothesis is true, then this is great news for traders who are tired of quite…
Since January 13, progressive bearish pressure has been built above the price level of 1.2780-1.2800 until March the 2nd when transient bearish consolidation below 1.2780 took place within the depicted wide-ranged slightly bearish channel.Shortly after, significant bullish rejection was demonstrated around 1.2780 on March 4. Hence, a quick bullish movement was expressed towards the price zone of 1.3165-1.3200 where significant bearish pressure brought the pair back below 1.2780, 1.2500 then 1.2260 via quick bearish engulfing H4 candlesticks.Recently, the GBPUSD has reached new LOW price levels around 1.1450, slightly below the historical low (1.1650) achieved in September 2016.Recently, the GBP/USD pair looked very OVERSOLD around the price levels of 1.1450 where a double-bottom reversal pattern was recently demonstrated.Technical outlook will probably remain bullish if bullish persistence is maintained above 1.1890-1.1900 (Double-Bottom Neckline) on the H4 Charts.Bullish breakout above 1.1900 (Latest Descending High) invalidated the bearish scenario temporarily & enabled a quick bullish movement to occur towards 1.2260.Next bullish targets around 1.2520 and 1.2680 are expected to be addressed if sufficient bullish momentum is maintained.On the other hand, H4 Candlestick re-closure below 1.2265 hinders further bullish advancement and enhances the bearish momentum on the short term.If so, Initial Bearish target would be located…
Since December 30, the EURUSD pair has trended-down within the depicted bearish channel until few weeks ago, when a new low around 1.0790 was recently established where the EUR/USD pair looked OVERSOLD after such extensive bearish decline.On February 20, recent signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated around 1.0790 leading to the recent steep bullish movement towards 1.1000, 1.1175, 1.1360 and finally 1.1480 where a (123) bearish reversal pattern was initiated around.This turned the short-term technical outlook for the EURUSD pair into bearish when bearish persistence below the Keyzone of 1.1235 was maintained on a daily basis.Moreover, the mentioned intermediate-term bearish Head & Shoulders pattern has achieved all of its projection target levels.Earlier last week, the EURUSD pair has expressed significant bullish recovery around 1.1065The recent bullish engulfing H4 candlesticks as well as the recently-demonstrated ascending bottoms indicated a high probability bullish pullback at least towards 1.0980 and 1.1075 (Fibonacci Level 50%).Key Supply-Levels in confluence with significant Fibonacci levels are located around 1.1075 (50% Fibonacci) and 1.1175 (61.8% Fibonacci) where bearish rejection was highly-expected.Moreover, a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern is being demonstrated around current price levels, of which, the pattern neckline exists near the current supply level around 1.1075.Trade recommendations :Intraday…
Markets were waiting for the first reports for March – waiting with horror and interest, as the European coronavirus tragedy unfolded in mid-March.
But the news came out surprisingly calm: the ADP report on employment in the US showed just -27,000 jobs (this is surprising, given that weekly unemployment benefits jumped to 3.28 million last week).
The ISM index came out at 49 – clearly not matching the negative economy.
Markets will wait for US employment reports on Thursday and Friday.
We are following the new data on coronavirus – in the US first of all.
On the morning of April 1, there were 188,000 infected in the US, already 4,000 deaths and 900 deaths per day.
Buy at the breakout to the top of 1.1150.
We sell from 1.0635.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…
The data on the eurozone is beginning to show what many economists and experts were so afraid of. Even taking into account reports on industrial activity, which failed to recover at the beginning of this year, the impact of the coronavirus on the economy will be much stronger than expected. Most likely, the weak economy of the euro region will be in a much more difficult position than the US, China or Japan.
Only a report on retail sales in Germany in February this year reminded us of the good times that would have awaited the economy if there had not been a coronavirus pandemic. According to data, retail sales in Germany rose sharply in February due to a fairly high domestic demand for essential goods. Compared to February last year, sales jumped by 6.4%. Compared to January, sales jumped by 1.2% in February, with a forecast of 0.1%. The largest increase was observed in the online sales of food products. The jump was also recorded in sales of pharmaceutical products by 6.6%, as many began to fear the spread of the epidemic even then.
As for the reports on the manufacturing sector of the eurozone, there is…
Gold price remains below $1,600 and under pressure. Price has not broken below the last low at $1.573 but instead it respects so far Kumo (cloud) support. We have a first weak sell signal and soon we will have its confirmation or an upward reversal.In the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud chart of Gold as shown above, we see the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) crossing the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). This is a weak sell signal. Price is now testing the upper boundary of the Kumo (cloud). If price breaks below $1,573 we should expect price to fall towards $1,550 if not lower. We have been warning from previous posts that a price decline towards $1,570 was our first target and we now see potential for lower. Short-term trend is bearish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…