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The biggest euro area economy is set to shrink severely this year due to containment measures in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus, or Covid-19, pandemic, the industry group BDI said Monday. Germany’s gross domestic product is likely to decline 3 to 6 percent this year, if economic activity is interrupted for a maximum of six weeks, BDI said. Global economic output is forecast to fall 3 percent, which will be the second fall in the past 50 years. In 2009, the world economy declined 1.7 percent. In a best case scenario, the global trade will fall 3 to 5 percent, the BDI said. A strong recession in the US, Europe and Japan can no longer be avoided this year, the group predicted. Eurozone and the EU is set to witness a 3-5 percent decline in output and the United States may see a 2-4 percent fall. The Japanese economy may shrink 1 to 3 percent, while China may log growth of up to 2 percent, the BDI said. The fiscal support and revitalization packages in the EU are still insufficient and further strong measures are required in may countries, the BDI said. Germany has advanced with a…
Singapore announced an additional S$5.1 billion (US$3.6 billion) stimulus to save jobs and protect the livelihoods of people amid the spread of coronavirus, or COVID-19, pandemic. This is the third stimulus package, which was unveiled by Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat on Monday, and covers wage subsidies and cash payout. With the latest announcement, the government’s response to COVID-19 will total S$59.9 billion or around 12 percent of GDP. The budget deficit is estimated to rise to 8.9 percent of GDP this year. The government obtained President’s in-principle support for a draw of up to S$17 billion from past reserves to finance its second package. The central bank had eased its monetary policy last week as the city-state is expected to enter a deep recession due to the interruptions to economic activity caused by the outbreak of COVID-19. “The primary aim of this Solidarity Budget is to take further steps to save jobs and protect the livelihoods of our people during this temporary period of heightened measures,” Heng said. “We will also help businesses preserve their capacity and capabilities, to resume activities when the circuit breaker is lifted,” he added. The wage subsidy for all firms…
Average volatility over the past five days: 126p (high).
The first trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair was held in absolutely calm, Monday trading. Like at a time when there was no epidemic of coronavirus yet, and panic did not engulf the currency, commodity and stock markets. The euro/dollar pair has passed only 68 points during the day. And this is absolutely the lowest figure for the past month and a half. Thus, we can confidently say that market participants continue to calm down after an almost one and a half month period of chaos and panic. This conclusion suggests that in the near future the markets will begin to recover. And so far, it is precisely and only about restoring markets, not the economies of the United States or the European Union. Markets are tricky, but even during a pandemic and crisis, they cannot contract and fall constantly. We need, so to speak, upward corrections. Whoever says anything, the number one energy price in the world — oil — cannot be $20-25 per barrel. Theoretically, this is possible. For a short period of time, but not constantly, and not in for the long…
Anti-risk sentiment in the currency market continues to grow, but the Japanese currency ignores these trends. This time, the yen can not take advantage of the status of a protective asset, as traders are concerned about the fate of the Japanese economy directly due to the latest decisions of the official Tokyo. Therefore, investors have to look for other options in this situation. In fact, they don’t have much of a choice: either the dollar or gold. These two assets are growing today, while the other instruments show a downward trend.
Rumors that Japan will introduce a state of emergency appeared at the end of last week. Reacting to such assumptions, the USD/JPY pair pushed off from the local minimum of 106.93 and headed back up towards the 110th figure. After the publication of the failed non-farms, this growth increased – despite everything, the dollar not only did not lose its position, but also strengthened throughout the market. Traders were clearly discouraged by the published figures, which turned out to be much worse than the rather weak forecasts. No joke – the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector decreased in March by 700,000. The same dynamics was recorded in the…
As we can see on the chart, S&P500 is moving up.
There is a rise amid expectations of the coronavirus decline in the US.
In Europe, the situation is improving. In Italy and Spain, a number of deaths ( around 500 and 700) dropped from the highest level of 1 thousand people a day. A number of infected people is advancing by 6%-7% every day.
In the US, the total number of infected people is 337 thousand. In New York, a number of confirmed coronavirus cases is 123 thousand. Of course, it is too much for such a city. Nevertheless, a number of new cases is below 10% a day (+7%).
Reports on coronavirus from the US are really fresh. The data is expected to be confirmed during the next two days.
This week can become a pivot point for the US.
In Russia, the epidemiological situation is getting worse and worse. A number of new cases grew by 15% a day to 6,346 people. More than 70% of all cases were recorded in Moscow.
Buy positions can be opened at 1.1040.
Sell positions can be opened at 1.0635.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company…