Tag Archives: forex

Australian Dollar Volatility Risk Remains Amid Thin Liquidity

DailyFX.com –

Australian Dollar Volatility Risk Remains Amid Thin Liquidity

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Australian Dollar Lacking for Discrete Drivers After Fed Rate Hike
  • Thin Liquidity in Pre-Holiday Trade May Amplify Knee-Jerk Volatility
  • Find Key Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar faced selling pressure last week as expected, with prices dropping to their lowest in a month against the greenback. The Aussie’s slump was matched by a drop in share prices as risk sentiment soured in the days following the FOMC monetary policy announcement, where Chair Yellen and company issued the first post-QE increase in the benchmark lending rate. The S&P 500 – a benchmark for global risk appetite – ended the week with the weakest close since mid-October. read more

Bets of a BoC Rate Cut Rise As Oil Settles The Week Below $30

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Bets of a BoC Rate Cut Rise As Oil Settles The Week Below $30Bets of a BoC Rate Cut Rise As Oil Settles The Week Below $30

Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Bearish

A Bank of Canada rate cut is now the preferred bet as the Loonie seems in near free-fall. Against the JPY, the Canadian Dollar is off over 8% and is among the weakest currencies within the G10 as Chinese economic data continues to discourage risk sentiment and oversupply in Oil continues to push down the price of Oil to 12-year lows. All of this pressure amounts toward the Bank of Canada potentially easing again like they did last January. read more

New Zealand Needs a Relief Rally to Take Eyes Off RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

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New Zealand Needs a Relief Rally to Take Eyes Off RBNZ Rate Cut BetsNew Zealand Needs a Relief Rally to Take Eyes Off RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

Fundamental Forecast for the Kiwi:Bearish

  • New Zealand Dollar Ends Last Week With Strongest Rise Vs. USD in 3-Months
  • Weak CPI on Less Global Demand Keeps RBNZ Ripe for a Rate Cute This Week
  • For up-to-date and real-time analysis on the Kiwi and market reactions to economic factors currently ‘in the air,’ DailyFX on Demand can help.

Risk markets are no longer staring at the abyss as they were at the beginning of last week, which is benefitting markets like equities, Oil, & the New Zealand Dollar. From the start of the year, the New Zealand Dollar has been on its back foot as traders were quick to look at the slack of high-interest rates that the RBNZ could cutto get the economy running smoothly again. The apex of this ‘sell the kiwi against anything,’ move was after the disappointing CPI print on the 19th. read more

USD/JPY to Stage Larger Recovery on Hawkish Fed, Dovish BoJ

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USD/JPY to Stage Larger Recovery on Hawkish Fed, Dovish BoJUSD/JPY to Stage Larger Recovery on Hawkish Fed, Dovish BoJ

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Neutral

The near-term breakout in USD/JPY may gather pace next week should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) along with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) highlight the deviating paths for monetary policy. read more

Japanese Yen Shouldn’t be Strong, but it will Likely Continue Higher

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Japanese Yen Shouldn’t be Strong, but it will Likely Continue HigherJapanese Yen Shouldn’t be Strong, but it will Likely Continue Higher

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Neutral

The near-term breakout in USD/JPY may gather pace next week should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) along with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) highlight the deviating paths for monetary policy. read more

US Dollar Slow To Respond to Risk Trends, Fed Keeping it Back?

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar Slow To Respond to Risk Trends, Fed Keeping it Back?US Dollar Slow To Respond to Risk Trends, Fed Keeping it Back?

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish

  • Debate over the timing of the Fed’s next rate hike was drowned out by China, commodities and capital markets’ plunge
  • While risk aversion is broadening, the Dollar has yet to show it is serious about resuscitating its haven appeal
  • What are the Traits of Successful Traders? See what our studies have found to be the most common pitfalls of retail FX traders.

The Dollar still carries the glow of last month’s Fed hike and there is a new – and traditionally favorable – wind blowing in the currency’s favor: risk aversion. Yet despite, the encouraging fundamental circumstances, the Greenback is showing little of the drive it had enjoyed the past few years. The equally-weighted USDollar Index has inched up to a 12-year high while the trade-weighted ICE Dollar Index is virtually unchanged. Drives for commodity-currency based majors (USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD) and the tumble in the Cable (GBPUSD) seem to have more to do with counterparts than the Dollar itself. EURUSD, the world’s most liquid currency pair, perhaps best reflects the situation with a minor anti-dollar close week-over-week. read more

Watch China, Milk for Kiwi Cues

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Watch China, Milk for Kiwi CuesWatch China, Milk for Kiwi Cues

Fundamental Forecast for the Kiwi: Bearish

The New Zealand Dollar continues to display a tight relationship with the bigger overall macro-theme of China and the larger overall threat of an Asian slowdown. Since China began their most recent descent on the heels of the December rate hike out of the Federal Reserve, the Kiwi hasn’t held up well at all. Eleven of the past twelve days have seen the Kiwi trade lower against the greenback (for a total move of -6.3%), and if we match it up with the Yen, it’s even worse – with the same 11 of 12 tally but an even larger move lower; with a full -8.45% lost against the Yen over that 12-day sequence. read more