Tag Archives: forex

US Dollar’s Bid for 12-Year High Will Hinge on Fed’s Decision

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar’s Bid for 12-Year High Will Hinge on Fed’s DecisionUS Dollar’s Bid for 12-Year High Will Hinge on Fed’s Decision

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral

  • An active or expectd dovish shift from the ECB, PBoC and BoJ leverage the Dollar’s remarkably monetary policy bearing
  • Depending on whether the Fed maintains course, abandons a 2015 hike view or pulls the trigger; the impact will be wide
  • Find help with your trades and trading strategy from DailyFX analysts with DailyFX on Demand

The Dollar posted its best week performance in five months with this past Friday’s close. The rally was derived less from the currency’s own fundamental improvement rather than slump amongst its major counterparts. As we frequently experience, the FX market is one of relative strength. If the entire field of currencies is sliding into a fundamentally adverse situation – in this case dovish – then all the outperformer needs to do is to hold its bearing. While the Greenback rose on the backs of its most liquid alternatives, that indirect leverage would struggle to keep momentum, especially with the 12-year highs in site. Yet, we may find the next move is decisive and made with US event risk as the Fed prepares to wade back into monetary policy. And, volatility does not have to fall in currency’s favor. read more

Australian Dollar Volatility to Return on RBA, Fed Policy Speculation

DailyFX.com –

Australian Dollar Volatility to Return on RBA, Fed Policy SpeculationAustralian Dollar Volatility to Return on RBA, Fed Policy Speculation

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Upbeat 3Q Inflation Data May Undermine RBA Rate Cut Speculation
  • Aussie Dollar to Fall in With Risk Trends After FOMC Rate Decision
  • Find Key Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar edged lower for a second week after finding resistance below the 0.74 figure against its US counterpart. Momentum has proven to be lackluster however, yielding the tamest price action in a month. Volatility looks likely to return in the week ahead however amid a steady stream of high-profile event risk of the home-grown and external varieties. read more

Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

DailyFX.com –

Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data LoomAustralian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Aussie Dollar Volatility Risk Skewed to the Upside on RBA Rate Decision
  • US Jobs Data May Sink Aussie if Upbeat Reading Boosts Fed Liftoff Bets
  • Find Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar edged lower for a third consecutive week against its US counterpart as a disappointing third-quarter CPI reading revived interest rate cut speculation while a hawkish FOMC statement amplified policy divergence headwinds by reviving talk of Fed tightening in December. Both themes will be on full display in the week ahead as the RBA issues its rate decision and top-tier US economic data comes across the wires. read more

Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?

DailyFX.com –

Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Bearish

A notable disappointment from the Bank of Japan meant the Japanese Yen and the USD/JPY exchange rate finished the week almost exactly where they began. What happened, and what could finally force a break? read more

The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher

DailyFX.com –

The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD HigherThe End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher

Fundamental Forecast for the Kiwi:Bullish

  • New Zealand Dollar Ends October Best G10 Performer vs. USD, Up Nearly 6%
  • China’s End To Their One-Child Policy, Causes Dairy-Led NZD To Pop
  • For up-to-date and real-time analysis on the Kiwi and market reactions to economic factors currently ‘in the air,’ DailyFX on Demandcan help.

The New Zealand Dollar took flight over the month of October. Much relief for NZD Bulls came this week specifically despite an overtly dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve. Both central banks met on Wednesday, October 28 where Governor Graeme Wheeler gave an indication that further easing was necessary while the Federal Reserve set up expectations for a December rate hike. However, you would not know this by looking at price, which looks set to break out of a bull flag channel. A break above the channel could cause NZDUSD to test the 200-day moving average for the first time in 15 months, which currently sits near 0.7000. read more

Gold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPs

DailyFX.com –

Gold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPsGold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPs

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices are lower for a second consecutive week with the precious metal down 1.8% to trade at 1142 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline marks the largest weekly loss in nine with prices falling to three week lows after the Federal Reserve left the door open for a 2015 rate hike. read more

Australian Dollar May Fall Further as Fed, RBA Divergence Deepens

DailyFX.com –

Australian Dollar May Fall Further as Fed, RBA Divergence DeepensAustralian Dollar May Fall Further as Fed, RBA Divergence Deepens

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish

  • Aussie Dollar at Risk as Jobs Data Amplifies RBA Rate Cut Probabilities
  • China Data Unlikely to Offset Pressure from Fed Rate Hike Speculation
  • Find Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar continued to sink, registering a fourth consecutive week of losses and hitting a monthly low against its US counterpart. External factors conspired against the currency even as the RBA shied away from an interest rate cut and signalled it is not in a rush to ease in the near term. Upbeat US jobs data inspired the bulk of the losses, with a swell in December Fed rate hike expectations amplifying policy divergence headwinds and sinking the Aussie as expected. read more

Oil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for Canada

DailyFX.com –

Oil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for CanadaOil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for Canada

Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Bearish

Just last week we reiterated our bearish forecast for the Canadian Dollar on the basis of expected weakness in Oil prices. And last week, that is exactly what we got. But we did also see some positive information on the Canadian economy with a better than expected jobs report on Friday morning to finish off the week. The unemployment rate for the Canadian economy dropped to 7% versus an expectation of 7.1% as 44.4k jobs were added to Canadian payrolls against an expectation for a 10k increase. But looking inside of the numbers will highlight that this isn’t really as bullish as it may first appear, as 32k of those jobs were temporary positions related to the recent Canadian election. read more