Tag Archives: forex

US Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year High

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year HighUS Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year High

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral

  • Following a clear ambiguity over a December Fed hike, a range of central bankers are set to speak – including Janet Yellen
  • October NFPs will represent top event risk, but payrolls and unemployment aren’t as important as the wage component
  • Find help with your trades and trading strategy from DailyFX analysts with DailyFX on Demand

The Dollar was once again offered the opportunity to make a run on 2015’s highs and move on to levels not seen since 2003. And once more it would fall short of the task. Thefundamental winds to the currency’s back are strong, but they are also well-encorporated. The relative fundamental appeal of the Greenback has carried EURUSD to 1.05, USDJPY to 126 and USDCNH to 6.60. An extension of this already-impressive run would require a serious escalation in conviction. But, what short of a realized Fed hike or financial plunge forcing investors to scramble for safety could measure up to the technical implications of a breakaway climb into 12-year highs? There is plenty on tap this week which will give it a go, but questions of scale will constantly plague bulls’ confidence. read more

Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

DailyFX.com –

Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data LoomAustralian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Aussie Dollar Volatility Risk Skewed to the Upside on RBA Rate Decision
  • US Jobs Data May Sink Aussie if Upbeat Reading Boosts Fed Liftoff Bets
  • Find Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar edged lower for a third consecutive week against its US counterpart as a disappointing third-quarter CPI reading revived interest rate cut speculation while a hawkish FOMC statement amplified policy divergence headwinds by reviving talk of Fed tightening in December. Both themes will be on full display in the week ahead as the RBA issues its rate decision and top-tier US economic data comes across the wires. read more

Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?

DailyFX.com –

Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Bearish

A notable disappointment from the Bank of Japan meant the Japanese Yen and the USD/JPY exchange rate finished the week almost exactly where they began. What happened, and what could finally force a break? read more

The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher

DailyFX.com –

The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD HigherThe End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher

Fundamental Forecast for the Kiwi:Bullish

  • New Zealand Dollar Ends October Best G10 Performer vs. USD, Up Nearly 6%
  • China’s End To Their One-Child Policy, Causes Dairy-Led NZD To Pop
  • For up-to-date and real-time analysis on the Kiwi and market reactions to economic factors currently ‘in the air,’ DailyFX on Demandcan help.

The New Zealand Dollar took flight over the month of October. Much relief for NZD Bulls came this week specifically despite an overtly dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve. Both central banks met on Wednesday, October 28 where Governor Graeme Wheeler gave an indication that further easing was necessary while the Federal Reserve set up expectations for a December rate hike. However, you would not know this by looking at price, which looks set to break out of a bull flag channel. A break above the channel could cause NZDUSD to test the 200-day moving average for the first time in 15 months, which currently sits near 0.7000. read more

Gold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPs

DailyFX.com –

Gold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPsGold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPs

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices are lower for a second consecutive week with the precious metal down 1.8% to trade at 1142 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline marks the largest weekly loss in nine with prices falling to three week lows after the Federal Reserve left the door open for a 2015 rate hike. read more

US Dollar Breaks a 12-Year High but is Momentum A Guarantee?

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar Breaks a 12-Year High but is Momentum A Guarantee?US Dollar Breaks a 12-Year High but is Momentum A Guarantee?

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Bullish

  • An NFP beat and 7-year low jobless rate doesn’t carry as much weight as the six-year high in wage growth
  • The market has quickly backtracked on its skepticism over a Fed hike, but risk trends will be the market’s keystone
  • See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot

Eight months of congestion have been brought to a dramatic end this past week as the US Dollar mounted an impressive rally in the aftermath of the October labor report. For the trader waiting patiently for progress, this may offer enough evidence to reestablish bullish positions waylaid earlier in the year when the record-breaking 10-month climb stalled. Those leaning on fundamentals can make the argument that a renewed run is warranted given the widening monetary policy gap between the Fed and its peers. However, traders should be mindful of a few inevitable contingencies: the rise of risk aversion and the inevitable limit of a disparate policy bearing. read more

Gold Route to Persist as Stellar NFPs Point to December Hike

DailyFX.com –

Gold Route to Persist as Stellar NFPs Point to December HikeGold Route to Persist as Stellar NFPs Point to December Hike

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices plunged for a third consecutive week with the precious metal down more than 4.7% to trade at 1088 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline marks an eight-day losing streak (longest since July) with prices at risk for further losses amid growing expectations for a December rate hike from the Fed. read more

US Dollar Remains in Control, but Can it Really Hold its Gains?

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar Remains in Control, but Can it Really Hold its Gains?US Dollar Remains in Control, but Can it Really Hold its Gains?

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Bullish

The US Dollar rallied to fresh multi-month highs versus the Euro and other major counterparts as investors bought into the previous week’s breakout. Yet a mediocre week for US economic developments kept the Greenback well-contained, and indecision reigns supreme in the Euro/US Dollar exchange rate in particular. What could realistically get the US Dollar back on track? read more