Tag Archives: form

US Dollar’s Bid for 12-Year High Will Hinge on Fed’s Decision

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US Dollar’s Bid for 12-Year High Will Hinge on Fed’s DecisionUS Dollar’s Bid for 12-Year High Will Hinge on Fed’s Decision

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral

  • An active or expectd dovish shift from the ECB, PBoC and BoJ leverage the Dollar’s remarkably monetary policy bearing
  • Depending on whether the Fed maintains course, abandons a 2015 hike view or pulls the trigger; the impact will be wide
  • Find help with your trades and trading strategy from DailyFX analysts with DailyFX on Demand

The Dollar posted its best week performance in five months with this past Friday’s close. The rally was derived less from the currency’s own fundamental improvement rather than slump amongst its major counterparts. As we frequently experience, the FX market is one of relative strength. If the entire field of currencies is sliding into a fundamentally adverse situation – in this case dovish – then all the outperformer needs to do is to hold its bearing. While the Greenback rose on the backs of its most liquid alternatives, that indirect leverage would struggle to keep momentum, especially with the 12-year highs in site. Yet, we may find the next move is decisive and made with US event risk as the Fed prepares to wade back into monetary policy. And, volatility does not have to fall in currency’s favor. read more

Australian Dollar Volatility to Return on RBA, Fed Policy Speculation

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Australian Dollar Volatility to Return on RBA, Fed Policy SpeculationAustralian Dollar Volatility to Return on RBA, Fed Policy Speculation

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Upbeat 3Q Inflation Data May Undermine RBA Rate Cut Speculation
  • Aussie Dollar to Fall in With Risk Trends After FOMC Rate Decision
  • Find Key Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar edged lower for a second week after finding resistance below the 0.74 figure against its US counterpart. Momentum has proven to be lackluster however, yielding the tamest price action in a month. Volatility looks likely to return in the week ahead however amid a steady stream of high-profile event risk of the home-grown and external varieties. read more

Oil Prices Could Drive the CAD Lower Before the Recession Ends

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Oil Prices Could Drive the CAD Lower Before the Recession EndsOil Prices Could Drive the CAD Lower Before the Recession Ends

Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Bearish

The Canadian Dollar continued to slide lower to start the week, furthering the return of the up-trend in USD/CAD led by a precipitous drop in Oil prices. But a surprise decrease in Oil supplies on Wednesday helped to strengthen Crude prices to finish off the week, and this led to CAD strength for the past three days. But after extended down-trends in both Oil and Cad, the prospect of trend resumption may be near and an attractive entry in both of these markets may be near. read more

Oil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for Canada

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Oil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for CanadaOil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for Canada

Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Bearish

Just last week we reiterated our bearish forecast for the Canadian Dollar on the basis of expected weakness in Oil prices. And last week, that is exactly what we got. But we did also see some positive information on the Canadian economy with a better than expected jobs report on Friday morning to finish off the week. The unemployment rate for the Canadian economy dropped to 7% versus an expectation of 7.1% as 44.4k jobs were added to Canadian payrolls against an expectation for a 10k increase. But looking inside of the numbers will highlight that this isn’t really as bullish as it may first appear, as 32k of those jobs were temporary positions related to the recent Canadian election. read more

GBP/USD 2015 Rebound to Unravel Further as BoE Lags Behind Fed

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GBP/USD 2015 Rebound to Unravel Further as BoE Lags Behind FedGBP/USD 2015 Rebound to Unravel Further as BoE Lags Behind Fed

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound:Bearish

GBP/USD stands at risk of extended the decline from the beginning of the month should the key developments coming out of the U.K./U.S. largely boost speculation for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize monetary policy ahead of the Bank of England (BoE). read more

US Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year High

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US Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year HighUS Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year High

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral

  • Following a clear ambiguity over a December Fed hike, a range of central bankers are set to speak – including Janet Yellen
  • October NFPs will represent top event risk, but payrolls and unemployment aren’t as important as the wage component
  • Find help with your trades and trading strategy from DailyFX analysts with DailyFX on Demand

The Dollar was once again offered the opportunity to make a run on 2015’s highs and move on to levels not seen since 2003. And once more it would fall short of the task. Thefundamental winds to the currency’s back are strong, but they are also well-encorporated. The relative fundamental appeal of the Greenback has carried EURUSD to 1.05, USDJPY to 126 and USDCNH to 6.60. An extension of this already-impressive run would require a serious escalation in conviction. But, what short of a realized Fed hike or financial plunge forcing investors to scramble for safety could measure up to the technical implications of a breakaway climb into 12-year highs? There is plenty on tap this week which will give it a go, but questions of scale will constantly plague bulls’ confidence. read more

Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

DailyFX.com –

Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data LoomAustralian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Aussie Dollar Volatility Risk Skewed to the Upside on RBA Rate Decision
  • US Jobs Data May Sink Aussie if Upbeat Reading Boosts Fed Liftoff Bets
  • Find Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar edged lower for a third consecutive week against its US counterpart as a disappointing third-quarter CPI reading revived interest rate cut speculation while a hawkish FOMC statement amplified policy divergence headwinds by reviving talk of Fed tightening in December. Both themes will be on full display in the week ahead as the RBA issues its rate decision and top-tier US economic data comes across the wires. read more

The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher

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The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD HigherThe End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher

Fundamental Forecast for the Kiwi:Bullish

  • New Zealand Dollar Ends October Best G10 Performer vs. USD, Up Nearly 6%
  • China’s End To Their One-Child Policy, Causes Dairy-Led NZD To Pop
  • For up-to-date and real-time analysis on the Kiwi and market reactions to economic factors currently ‘in the air,’ DailyFX on Demandcan help.

The New Zealand Dollar took flight over the month of October. Much relief for NZD Bulls came this week specifically despite an overtly dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve. Both central banks met on Wednesday, October 28 where Governor Graeme Wheeler gave an indication that further easing was necessary while the Federal Reserve set up expectations for a December rate hike. However, you would not know this by looking at price, which looks set to break out of a bull flag channel. A break above the channel could cause NZDUSD to test the 200-day moving average for the first time in 15 months, which currently sits near 0.7000. read more

Gold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPs

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Gold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPsGold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPs

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices are lower for a second consecutive week with the precious metal down 1.8% to trade at 1142 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline marks the largest weekly loss in nine with prices falling to three week lows after the Federal Reserve left the door open for a 2015 rate hike. read more