Tag Archives: form

Gold: Here’s What to Look for After this Historic Run

DailyFX.com –

Gold: Here’s What to Look for After this Historic RunGold: Here’s What to Look for After this Historic Run

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices fell for a fourth consecutive week with the precious metal down nearly 0.3% to trade at 1081 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline comes alongside a sharp sell-off in equity markets with the major indices off by more than 3.5% on the week. Despite declines in the greenback, bullion has remained under pressure as the Federal Reserve signals that it may be ready to hike the benchmark interest rate hike for the first time in nearly a decade. read more

Fonterra Milk Auction To Put Spotlight on RBNZ’s Next Move

DailyFX.com –

Fonterra Milk Auction To Put Spotlight on RBNZ’s Next MoveFonterra Milk Auction To Put Spotlight on RBNZ’s Next Move

Fundamental Forecast for the Kiwi:Bearish

  • New Zealand Dollar Ends The Week Nearly Flat Against a Mixed USD
  • Speculative Longs Outweigh Shorts By 20% Vs Previous 18% Showing Speculative Positioning Is Still Convincingly Long-Kiwi, Increasing the Risk if USD Moves Higher in Near-Future
  • For up-to-date and real-time analysis on the Kiwi and market reactions to economic factors currently ‘in the air,’DailyFX on Demandcan help.

Halfway through the month of November, the New Zealand Dollar has retraced much of its October gains. In fact, across the G10, NZD is lower vs. the USD than even the Oil-driven Canadian Dollar and Norwegian Krone. Month-to-date, the New Zealand Dollar is lower by 3.70%. However, the Australian Dollar is the most resilient vs. the USD due to a mid-week AU employment report that moved AU rates substantially. That type of divergence rarely lasts meaning either the NZD will soon strengthen or the AUD weaken vs. the USD. Many investment bank research notes favor the later as a likely December Federal Reserve liftoff looms. read more

CAD Unable to Prevent Slide As Crude Oil Breaks Support

DailyFX.com –

CAD Unable to Prevent Slide As Crude Oil Breaks SupportCAD Unable to Prevent Slide As Crude Oil Breaks Support

Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Bearish

  • Canada’s Dollar Dragged Down As WTI Crude Oil Trades Near 2-Mo. Low On Oversupply Dampen The Appeal Of The Loonie.
  • Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s largest lender and the most accurate forecaster of the CAD advises clients to fund their Carry Trade with CAD, not EUR until BoC acts.
  • For up-to-date and real-time analysis on the CAD, Oil and market reactions to economic factors currently ‘in the air,’ DailyFX on Demand can help

The Canadian Dollar witnessed a strong drop in the second half of the week thanks in large part to a massive build in DoE and API Crude Oil Inventories this week. Market expectations were set right below ~800k for inventories, and Oil bulls were displeased to see a build of 4.22mn barrels and were then quick to sell Oil. The Canadian Dollar followed suit and ended the week as one of the poorest performers to the US Dollar alongside the Norwegian Krone, also heavily tied to the Oil market and Oil’s market price. read more

USD/JPY Stuck in Continuation Pattern Ahead of Japan GDP, BoJ Meeting

DailyFX.com –

USD/JPY Stuck in Continuation Pattern Ahead of Japan GDP, BoJ MeetingUSD/JPY Stuck in Continuation Pattern Ahead of Japan GDP, BoJ Meeting

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Neutral

The long-term outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish as the Federal Reserve remains on course to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), but the key developments coming out of Japan may produce a larger correction in the exchange rate should the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the November 19 interest rate decision. read more

GBP/USD Bounces Up to a Lower High Ahead of UK Inflation Data

DailyFX.com –

GBP/USD Bounces Up to a Lower High Ahead of UK Inflation DataGBP/USD Bounces Up to a Lower High Ahead of UK Inflation Data

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound:Bearish

Last week, my colleague David Song reiterated our Bearish forecast on the British Pound, citing the dovish tone taken by the Bank of England during Super Thursday and the fact that it looked as though the Sterling was going to continue getting hit by depressed rate expectations moving forward. As a matter of fact, one of the big takeaways from last week’s BoE announcement was that not only that the Bank of England wouldn’t likely be raising rates anytime soon, but that we may even be looking at an extension or increase in QE. The prevailing thought being that the Chief Economist of the Bank of England and voting member on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Andrew Haldane may eventually bring on a three-way-vote. After numerous 8-1 splits on the MPC, with Ian McCafferty being the sole dissenter voting for a rate hike; many started to think that Mr. Haldane may also dissent, but voting for looser monetary policy to split the vote even further 7-1-1. read more

Risk-On & Retail Sales Sends AUDUSD to 4-Month Highs

DailyFX.com –

Risk-On & Retail Sales Sends AUDUSD to 4-Month HighsRisk-On & Retail Sales Sends AUDUSD to 4-Month Highs

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Uneven GDP Points to Uncertainty Ahead for Australia’s Economy
  • Less dovish RBA and on balance better data flow helping AUD
  • Identify Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar peaked over the October 12th high on Friday. The risk-on sentiment as displayed by the SPX500 back near the 2,100 level and a Reserve Bank of Australian that isn’t looking to talk down the currency like they have in the past has provided a consistent bid under the Australian Dollar. Australia’s currency strengthened most aggressively against the Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar and US Dollar last week finishing higher by 2% across the board. Not only was AUD benefitted from Economic data in the form of retail sales that came in slightly better than expected at 0.5%MoM vs. exp. 0.4% and GDP, but the pricing in a rate cut by the RBA over the next year has nearly disappeared. If the US Dollar remains on weaker through the month of December, a push toward 0.7500 looks increasingly probable with the fundamental and Intermarket wind in the Australian Dollar’s sails. read more