Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral
- Following a clear ambiguity over a December Fed hike, a range of central bankers are set to speak – including Janet Yellen
- October NFPs will represent top event risk, but payrolls and unemployment aren’t as important as the wage component
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The Dollar was once again offered the opportunity to make a run on 2015’s highs and move on to levels not seen since 2003. And once more it would fall short of the task. Thefundamental winds to the currency’s back are strong, but they are also well-encorporated. The relative fundamental appeal of the Greenback has carried EURUSD to 1.05, USDJPY to 126 and USDCNH to 6.60. An extension of this already-impressive run would require a serious escalation in conviction. But, what short of a realized Fed hike or financial plunge forcing investors to scramble for safety could measure up to the technical implications of a breakaway climb into 12-year highs? There is plenty on tap this week which will give it a go, but questions of scale will constantly plague bulls’ confidence.
Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bullish
- The British Pound declines as the Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged
- We nonetheless see further technical evidence that the GBP/USD may have set an important low
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Another big week for the British Pound left the GBP/USD exchange rate at fresh monthly highs, but an even-bigger week ahead warns of major volatility for all US Dollar FX counterparts.
Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish
- Debate over the timing of the Fed’s next rate hike was drowned out by China, commodities and capital markets’ plunge
- While risk aversion is broadening, the Dollar has yet to show it is serious about resuscitating its haven appeal
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The Dollar still carries the glow of last month’s Fed hike and there is a new – and traditionally favorable – wind blowing in the currency’s favor: risk aversion. Yet despite, the encouraging fundamental circumstances, the Greenback is showing little of the drive it had enjoyed the past few years. The equally-weighted USDollar Index has inched up to a 12-year high while the trade-weighted ICE Dollar Index is virtually unchanged. Drives for commodity-currency based majors (USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD) and the tumble in the Cable (GBPUSD) seem to have more to do with counterparts than the Dollar itself. EURUSD, the world’s most liquid currency pair, perhaps best reflects the situation with a minor anti-dollar close week-over-week.
Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral
- Gold Rejected on First 1130 Test
- Japan Negative Rate Spooks Gold, Rumored OPEC Cut Supports Oil
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Gold prices are higher this week with the precious metal rallying nearly 1.8% to trade at 1117 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The move comes amid continued volatility in broader risk markets with the FOMC rate decision fueling speculation that the central bank will likely have to delay subsequent rate hikes. Although the dollar was weaker for the majority of the session, a late-week rally took the Dow Jones FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) to fresh highs. Ongoing technical divergence however continues to suggest the greenback remains vulnerable- with bullion standing to gain from dollar softness.
The foreign exchange market Forex- FX, or currency market
Forex is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. This includes all aspects of buying, selling and exchanging currencies at current or determined prices. In terms of volume of trading, it is by far the largest market in the world. The main participants in this market are the larger international banks. Financial centres around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of multiple types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends. The foreign exchange market determines the relative values of different currencies.