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USD/JPY short adjustments

USD/JPY short adjustments

Tuesday, Feb 9, 2016 7:20 am EDT

Global macro, technical analysis, cyclical analysis & market geometry

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In retrospect I probably took profit on half my short position in USD/JPY last week too early. However, I am pretty mechanical on the money management side of trading and I view that “lost profit” as the cost of staying unemotional. Technically the break of last month’s low puts the exchange rate in an obvious precarious position (long -term H&S pattern) that raises the risk of a much more aggressive slide. I am glad I still have half on. The next zone of importance on the downside looks to be 114.55/35 as this marks a nice convergence of the bottom of the 1-year standard deviation channel, the 9th square root relationship of the 2015 high and the 127% extension of the late January advance. An oversold bounce from around there would not surprise, while a break below would likely confirm that a more significant decline is indeed underway. read more

Silver Should Be Trading At $14.93 According to Gold

DailyFX.com –

The technical outlook is little changed for silver.

The overall trend is bullish above the January 22 low of $14 and the next resistance level and target for bullish traders is the December 7 high of $14.58, a target silver should be able to reach so long as its correlation to the price of gold holds up. My latest fair-value-estimate suggests that silver should be trading at $14.93 on gold prices trading at or above $1124.5. read more