Tag Archives: markets

Australian Dollar Faces Perfect Storm of Key Event Risk Ahead

DailyFX.com –

Australian Dollar Faces Perfect Storm of Key Event Risk AheadAustralian Dollar Faces Perfect Storm of Key Event Risk Ahead

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • RBA Rate Decision, 3Q GDP Data Unlikely to Disrupt Existing Policy Bets
  • ECB Meeting, Yellen Testimony and US Jobs Data Cloud Risk Trends View
  • Identify Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar faces a perfect storm of volatility in the week ahead as high-profile event risk on the homegrown and the external fronts looms ahead. Monetary policy considerations are first to take center stage, only to be replaced by churn in risk sentiment trends. read more

How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?

DailyFX.com –

How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

The past six weeks have been brutal for Gold, and this was really sparked by rate hike expectations out of the Federal Reserve, as the top in Gold meshes well with the bottom in the US Dollar (both taking place on October 15th). But over the past six weeks, Gold is down by 11% and the dollar is only up by 8%; so this isn’t’ the only factor bringing pain to Gold prices. Numerous technical levels have given way, and Gold prices are sitting at six-year lows with very little support anywhere nearby. read more

US Dollar Wobbles But Fed Speculation and Liquidity Keep a Bid

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar Wobbles But Fed Speculation and Liquidity Keep a BidUS Dollar Wobbles But Fed Speculation and Liquidity Keep a Bid

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish

  • The probability of a December 16 FOMC rate hike according to Fed Funds futures Friday is 74 percent
  • Monetary policy is a steady fundamental current, but the true engine for the Dollar may prove liquidity and volatility
  • See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot

The US Dollar this past week thwarted what could have been a nasty reversal that changed the balance of sentiment. Having already stretched to 12-year highs, a number of surveys mark long-Dollar as one of the most oversaturated trades in the market. Yet, the market is there for a reason…for good reason. Whether we are looking forward to steady markets where the glint of yield attracts investors or liquidity-levered volatility that sends a current of fear through the system, the Greenback will be a favored vehicle for investors. The key variable is one of intensity, and that will be put to the test with the holiday trading conditions. read more

US Dollar Fundamentally Moored Until Fed or Fear Decides Its Fate

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar Fundamentally Moored Until Fed or Fear Decides Its FateUS Dollar Fundamentally Moored Until Fed or Fear Decides Its Fate

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish

  • November NFPs haven’t steered the Fed off course for a rate hike before year end though the ECB reaction alters the view
  • Anticipation for the December 16 FOMC meeting will curb trend development but not dampen volatility
  • See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot

A lot has changed for the Dollar this past week. Technically speaking, the Greenback has tumbled from its 12-year highs and now finds itself in a comfortable range. Proximity to critical highs or lows creates tension and can subsequently spur speculative runs for trend development. Fundamentally, the ECB decision and NFPs have wrung some tension from positioning. And, while the week ahead carries more than its fair share of important event risk, the systemically important catalysts are further out on the horizon. These circumstances will shape trading conditions for the Dollar and the broader financial markets. Anxiety will support volatility, but fostering trends will be far more difficult. Active traders should adapt to the environment while investors (longer term) should mark the change in tempo for the currency’s monetary policy advantage post-ECB and pre-FOMC. read more

Gold Primed for a Push Higher- Sell the Fed Rip

DailyFX.com –

Gold Primed for a Push Higher- Sell the Fed RipGold Primed for a Push Higher- Sell the Fed Rip

Fundamental Forecast for the Yuan: Neutral

Gold prices are softer this week with the precious metal down nearly 1% to trade at 1075 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline comes amid sharp losses in broader equity markets and on the heels of last week’s massive 2.7% advance with prices largely in consolidation above near-term support ahead of major event risk next week. read more

JPY Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in 3 Months on Risk Rout

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JPY Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in 3 Months on Risk RoutJPY Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in 3 Months on Risk Rout

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Bullish

  • The Japanese Yen Has Risen Against All 31 Of Its Major Peers In The Past Six Months, BoJ Meeting In View
  • Doubt Spills On BoJ’s Ability To Meet Inflation Target And Risk Sentiment May Takeover At Year End
  • For Up-To-Date And Real-Time Analysis On The Yen, Oil And Market Reactions To Economic Factors Currently ‘In The Air,’ Dailyfx On Demand Can Help.

When the Japanese Yen is best performer against the US Dollar over a week and is higher against 31 of its peers over a sixth month span, global markets are typically not ‘Bullish’. This time is no exception as global markets as per the MSCI Emerging Market Stock Index is down for 8 straight days, marking the largest slump since June. Additionally, the continual drop in energy with US Oil breaking $36 toward the 2008 lows of $32.40 and Iron Ore down for 9 straight weeks. read more

British Pound Looks like a Buy, but Watch Huge Risk on Fed Decision

DailyFX.com –

British Pound Looks like a Buy, but Watch Huge Risk on Fed DecisionBritish Pound Looks like a Buy, but Watch Huge Risk on Fed Decision

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bullish

Another big week for the British Pound left the GBP/USD exchange rate at fresh monthly highs, but an even-bigger week ahead warns of major volatility for all US Dollar FX counterparts. read more