Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish
- A slew of Fed speeches and November NFPs will pilot rate expectations that already see a 78% chance of a Dec hike
- The greater fundamentals winds may come from the Dollar’s peers amid a round of rate decisions and SDR status checks
- See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot
The week ahead is the antithesis of what we have come to expect from December. Seasonal studies say the month is historically a quiet one with a quiet build in risk appetite. Instead, we are heading into the first wave of a significant fundamental assault that will test already flimsy speculative forecasts while running a high risk of volatility. The question immediately on most FX traders’ minds is whether the standings of monetary policy biases shaped over the past few months will hold their course. Yet, participants of all markets should be more concerned over the implications of volatility against thin volume and a leveraged speculative exposure. These are circumstances ripe for liquidity problems and a dramatic shift in both market direction and pace.