Tag Archives: markets

US Rate Speculation Versus a Tumultuous World of Fundamentals

DailyFX.com –

US Rate Speculation Versus a Tumultuous World of FundamentalsUS Rate Speculation Versus a Tumultuous World of Fundamentals

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish

  • A slew of Fed speeches and November NFPs will pilot rate expectations that already see a 78% chance of a Dec hike
  • The greater fundamentals winds may come from the Dollar’s peers amid a round of rate decisions and SDR status checks
  • See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot

The week ahead is the antithesis of what we have come to expect from December. Seasonal studies say the month is historically a quiet one with a quiet build in risk appetite. Instead, we are heading into the first wave of a significant fundamental assault that will test already flimsy speculative forecasts while running a high risk of volatility. The question immediately on most FX traders’ minds is whether the standings of monetary policy biases shaped over the past few months will hold their course. Yet, participants of all markets should be more concerned over the implications of volatility against thin volume and a leveraged speculative exposure. These are circumstances ripe for liquidity problems and a dramatic shift in both market direction and pace. read more

Australian Dollar Faces Perfect Storm of Key Event Risk Ahead

DailyFX.com –

Australian Dollar Faces Perfect Storm of Key Event Risk AheadAustralian Dollar Faces Perfect Storm of Key Event Risk Ahead

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • RBA Rate Decision, 3Q GDP Data Unlikely to Disrupt Existing Policy Bets
  • ECB Meeting, Yellen Testimony and US Jobs Data Cloud Risk Trends View
  • Identify Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar faces a perfect storm of volatility in the week ahead as high-profile event risk on the homegrown and the external fronts looms ahead. Monetary policy considerations are first to take center stage, only to be replaced by churn in risk sentiment trends. read more

How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?

DailyFX.com –

How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

The past six weeks have been brutal for Gold, and this was really sparked by rate hike expectations out of the Federal Reserve, as the top in Gold meshes well with the bottom in the US Dollar (both taking place on October 15th). But over the past six weeks, Gold is down by 11% and the dollar is only up by 8%; so this isn’t’ the only factor bringing pain to Gold prices. Numerous technical levels have given way, and Gold prices are sitting at six-year lows with very little support anywhere nearby. read more

Gold Primed for a Push Higher- Sell the Fed Rip

DailyFX.com –

Gold Primed for a Push Higher- Sell the Fed RipGold Primed for a Push Higher- Sell the Fed Rip

Fundamental Forecast for the Yuan: Neutral

Gold prices are softer this week with the precious metal down nearly 1% to trade at 1075 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline comes amid sharp losses in broader equity markets and on the heels of last week’s massive 2.7% advance with prices largely in consolidation above near-term support ahead of major event risk next week. read more

JPY Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in 3 Months on Risk Rout

DailyFX.com –

JPY Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in 3 Months on Risk RoutJPY Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in 3 Months on Risk Rout

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Bullish

  • The Japanese Yen Has Risen Against All 31 Of Its Major Peers In The Past Six Months, BoJ Meeting In View
  • Doubt Spills On BoJ’s Ability To Meet Inflation Target And Risk Sentiment May Takeover At Year End
  • For Up-To-Date And Real-Time Analysis On The Yen, Oil And Market Reactions To Economic Factors Currently ‘In The Air,’ Dailyfx On Demand Can Help.

When the Japanese Yen is best performer against the US Dollar over a week and is higher against 31 of its peers over a sixth month span, global markets are typically not ‘Bullish’. This time is no exception as global markets as per the MSCI Emerging Market Stock Index is down for 8 straight days, marking the largest slump since June. Additionally, the continual drop in energy with US Oil breaking $36 toward the 2008 lows of $32.40 and Iron Ore down for 9 straight weeks. read more

British Pound Looks like a Buy, but Watch Huge Risk on Fed Decision

DailyFX.com –

British Pound Looks like a Buy, but Watch Huge Risk on Fed DecisionBritish Pound Looks like a Buy, but Watch Huge Risk on Fed Decision

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bullish

Another big week for the British Pound left the GBP/USD exchange rate at fresh monthly highs, but an even-bigger week ahead warns of major volatility for all US Dollar FX counterparts. read more

Europe: There is Nothing Civil about Civil War, in Politics or Economics

DailyFX.com –

Europe: There is Nothing Civil about Civil War, in Politics or EconomicsEurope: There is Nothing Civil about Civil War, in Politics or Economics

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral

So how about that Euro, huh? After last week’s four-handle burst on the back of the ECB disappointment, many traders looked at this as a gift from markets: The potential to short the currency of an economy that’s facing significant headwinds without the ability to form a strong enough coalition to actually try to counter this weakness. This is yet another page in the story of what happens when a supra-national attempts to re-grow their economy. read more