Tag Archives: through

US Dollar’s Bid for 12-Year High Will Hinge on Fed’s Decision

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar’s Bid for 12-Year High Will Hinge on Fed’s DecisionUS Dollar’s Bid for 12-Year High Will Hinge on Fed’s Decision

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral

  • An active or expectd dovish shift from the ECB, PBoC and BoJ leverage the Dollar’s remarkably monetary policy bearing
  • Depending on whether the Fed maintains course, abandons a 2015 hike view or pulls the trigger; the impact will be wide
  • Find help with your trades and trading strategy from DailyFX analysts with DailyFX on Demand

The Dollar posted its best week performance in five months with this past Friday’s close. The rally was derived less from the currency’s own fundamental improvement rather than slump amongst its major counterparts. As we frequently experience, the FX market is one of relative strength. If the entire field of currencies is sliding into a fundamentally adverse situation – in this case dovish – then all the outperformer needs to do is to hold its bearing. While the Greenback rose on the backs of its most liquid alternatives, that indirect leverage would struggle to keep momentum, especially with the 12-year highs in site. Yet, we may find the next move is decisive and made with US event risk as the Fed prepares to wade back into monetary policy. And, volatility does not have to fall in currency’s favor. read more

Australian Dollar Volatility to Return on RBA, Fed Policy Speculation

DailyFX.com –

Australian Dollar Volatility to Return on RBA, Fed Policy SpeculationAustralian Dollar Volatility to Return on RBA, Fed Policy Speculation

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Upbeat 3Q Inflation Data May Undermine RBA Rate Cut Speculation
  • Aussie Dollar to Fall in With Risk Trends After FOMC Rate Decision
  • Find Key Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar edged lower for a second week after finding resistance below the 0.74 figure against its US counterpart. Momentum has proven to be lackluster however, yielding the tamest price action in a month. Volatility looks likely to return in the week ahead however amid a steady stream of high-profile event risk of the home-grown and external varieties. read more

Oil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for Canada

DailyFX.com –

Oil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for CanadaOil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for Canada

Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Bearish

Just last week we reiterated our bearish forecast for the Canadian Dollar on the basis of expected weakness in Oil prices. And last week, that is exactly what we got. But we did also see some positive information on the Canadian economy with a better than expected jobs report on Friday morning to finish off the week. The unemployment rate for the Canadian economy dropped to 7% versus an expectation of 7.1% as 44.4k jobs were added to Canadian payrolls against an expectation for a 10k increase. But looking inside of the numbers will highlight that this isn’t really as bullish as it may first appear, as 32k of those jobs were temporary positions related to the recent Canadian election. read more

Traders Believe USD/JPY Could Rally Further – What Could Change?

DailyFX.com –

Traders Believe USD/JPY Could Rally Further – What Could Change?Traders Believe USD/JPY Could Rally Further – What Could Change?

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Bearish

The Japanese Yen finally showed signs it might break its long-standing trading range as it fell to multi-month lows versus the resurgent US Dollar. But will the post-NFPs USD rally be enough to take the USD/JPY to fresh decade-plus peaks? read more

US Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year High

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year HighUS Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year High

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral

  • Following a clear ambiguity over a December Fed hike, a range of central bankers are set to speak – including Janet Yellen
  • October NFPs will represent top event risk, but payrolls and unemployment aren’t as important as the wage component
  • Find help with your trades and trading strategy from DailyFX analysts with DailyFX on Demand

The Dollar was once again offered the opportunity to make a run on 2015’s highs and move on to levels not seen since 2003. And once more it would fall short of the task. Thefundamental winds to the currency’s back are strong, but they are also well-encorporated. The relative fundamental appeal of the Greenback has carried EURUSD to 1.05, USDJPY to 126 and USDCNH to 6.60. An extension of this already-impressive run would require a serious escalation in conviction. But, what short of a realized Fed hike or financial plunge forcing investors to scramble for safety could measure up to the technical implications of a breakaway climb into 12-year highs? There is plenty on tap this week which will give it a go, but questions of scale will constantly plague bulls’ confidence. read more

Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

DailyFX.com –

Australian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data LoomAustralian Dollar Under Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Aussie Dollar Volatility Risk Skewed to the Upside on RBA Rate Decision
  • US Jobs Data May Sink Aussie if Upbeat Reading Boosts Fed Liftoff Bets
  • Find Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar edged lower for a third consecutive week against its US counterpart as a disappointing third-quarter CPI reading revived interest rate cut speculation while a hawkish FOMC statement amplified policy divergence headwinds by reviving talk of Fed tightening in December. Both themes will be on full display in the week ahead as the RBA issues its rate decision and top-tier US economic data comes across the wires. read more

Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?

DailyFX.com –

Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Bearish

A notable disappointment from the Bank of Japan meant the Japanese Yen and the USD/JPY exchange rate finished the week almost exactly where they began. What happened, and what could finally force a break? read more

Gold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPs

DailyFX.com –

Gold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPsGold Pops and Drops on Fed- Prices Target Support Ahead of NFPs

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices are lower for a second consecutive week with the precious metal down 1.8% to trade at 1142 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline marks the largest weekly loss in nine with prices falling to three week lows after the Federal Reserve left the door open for a 2015 rate hike. read more

Gold Route to Persist as Stellar NFPs Point to December Hike

DailyFX.com –

Gold Route to Persist as Stellar NFPs Point to December HikeGold Route to Persist as Stellar NFPs Point to December Hike

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices plunged for a third consecutive week with the precious metal down more than 4.7% to trade at 1088 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline marks an eight-day losing streak (longest since July) with prices at risk for further losses amid growing expectations for a December rate hike from the Fed. read more

US Dollar Remains in Control, but Can it Really Hold its Gains?

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar Remains in Control, but Can it Really Hold its Gains?US Dollar Remains in Control, but Can it Really Hold its Gains?

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Bullish

The US Dollar rallied to fresh multi-month highs versus the Euro and other major counterparts as investors bought into the previous week’s breakout. Yet a mediocre week for US economic developments kept the Greenback well-contained, and indecision reigns supreme in the Euro/US Dollar exchange rate in particular. What could realistically get the US Dollar back on track? read more