Tag Archives: through

US Dollar Wobbles But Fed Speculation and Liquidity Keep a Bid

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar Wobbles But Fed Speculation and Liquidity Keep a BidUS Dollar Wobbles But Fed Speculation and Liquidity Keep a Bid

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish

  • The probability of a December 16 FOMC rate hike according to Fed Funds futures Friday is 74 percent
  • Monetary policy is a steady fundamental current, but the true engine for the Dollar may prove liquidity and volatility
  • See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot

The US Dollar this past week thwarted what could have been a nasty reversal that changed the balance of sentiment. Having already stretched to 12-year highs, a number of surveys mark long-Dollar as one of the most oversaturated trades in the market. Yet, the market is there for a reason…for good reason. Whether we are looking forward to steady markets where the glint of yield attracts investors or liquidity-levered volatility that sends a current of fear through the system, the Greenback will be a favored vehicle for investors. The key variable is one of intensity, and that will be put to the test with the holiday trading conditions. read more

Gold Prices Down for a Fifth Week- Outlook Hinges on US GDP

DailyFX.com –

Gold Prices Down for a Fifth Week- Outlook Hinges on US GDPGold Prices Down for a Fifth Week- Outlook Hinges on US GDP

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices continued to fall for the fifth consecutive week with the precious metal down 0.6% to trade at 1076 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will move to raise interest rates in December for the first time since 2006. read more

NZD/USD Outlook Hinges on Fate of RBNZ Easing Cycle

DailyFX.com –

NZD/USD Outlook Hinges on Fate of RBNZ Easing CycleNZD/USD Outlook Hinges on Fate of RBNZ Easing Cycle

Fundamental Forecast for the Kiwi: Bearish

NZD/USD may continue to retrace the decline from the October high (0.6896) as subdued wage growth in the world’s largest economy drags on the Fed outlook, but the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) December 10 policy meeting may drag on the exchange rate should Governor Graeme Wheeler and Co. show a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle in 2016. read more

Risk-On & Retail Sales Sends AUDUSD to 4-Month Highs

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Risk-On & Retail Sales Sends AUDUSD to 4-Month HighsRisk-On & Retail Sales Sends AUDUSD to 4-Month Highs

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Uneven GDP Points to Uncertainty Ahead for Australia’s Economy
  • Less dovish RBA and on balance better data flow helping AUD
  • Identify Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar peaked over the October 12th high on Friday. The risk-on sentiment as displayed by the SPX500 back near the 2,100 level and a Reserve Bank of Australian that isn’t looking to talk down the currency like they have in the past has provided a consistent bid under the Australian Dollar. Australia’s currency strengthened most aggressively against the Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar and US Dollar last week finishing higher by 2% across the board. Not only was AUD benefitted from Economic data in the form of retail sales that came in slightly better than expected at 0.5%MoM vs. exp. 0.4% and GDP, but the pricing in a rate cut by the RBA over the next year has nearly disappeared. If the US Dollar remains on weaker through the month of December, a push toward 0.7500 looks increasingly probable with the fundamental and Intermarket wind in the Australian Dollar’s sails. read more

Gold Primed for a Push Higher- Sell the Fed Rip

DailyFX.com –

Gold Primed for a Push Higher- Sell the Fed RipGold Primed for a Push Higher- Sell the Fed Rip

Fundamental Forecast for the Yuan: Neutral

Gold prices are softer this week with the precious metal down nearly 1% to trade at 1075 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline comes amid sharp losses in broader equity markets and on the heels of last week’s massive 2.7% advance with prices largely in consolidation above near-term support ahead of major event risk next week. read more

JPY Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in 3 Months on Risk Rout

DailyFX.com –

JPY Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in 3 Months on Risk RoutJPY Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in 3 Months on Risk Rout

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Bullish

  • The Japanese Yen Has Risen Against All 31 Of Its Major Peers In The Past Six Months, BoJ Meeting In View
  • Doubt Spills On BoJ’s Ability To Meet Inflation Target And Risk Sentiment May Takeover At Year End
  • For Up-To-Date And Real-Time Analysis On The Yen, Oil And Market Reactions To Economic Factors Currently ‘In The Air,’ Dailyfx On Demand Can Help.

When the Japanese Yen is best performer against the US Dollar over a week and is higher against 31 of its peers over a sixth month span, global markets are typically not ‘Bullish’. This time is no exception as global markets as per the MSCI Emerging Market Stock Index is down for 8 straight days, marking the largest slump since June. Additionally, the continual drop in energy with US Oil breaking $36 toward the 2008 lows of $32.40 and Iron Ore down for 9 straight weeks. read more

US Dollar Fundamentally Moored Until Fed or Fear Decides Its Fate

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar Fundamentally Moored Until Fed or Fear Decides Its FateUS Dollar Fundamentally Moored Until Fed or Fear Decides Its Fate

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish

  • November NFPs haven’t steered the Fed off course for a rate hike before year end though the ECB reaction alters the view
  • Anticipation for the December 16 FOMC meeting will curb trend development but not dampen volatility
  • See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot

A lot has changed for the Dollar this past week. Technically speaking, the Greenback has tumbled from its 12-year highs and now finds itself in a comfortable range. Proximity to critical highs or lows creates tension and can subsequently spur speculative runs for trend development. Fundamentally, the ECB decision and NFPs have wrung some tension from positioning. And, while the week ahead carries more than its fair share of important event risk, the systemically important catalysts are further out on the horizon. These circumstances will shape trading conditions for the Dollar and the broader financial markets. Anxiety will support volatility, but fostering trends will be far more difficult. Active traders should adapt to the environment while investors (longer term) should mark the change in tempo for the currency’s monetary policy advantage post-ECB and pre-FOMC. read more