Tag Archives: through

USD/JPY to Stage Larger Recovery on Hawkish Fed, Dovish BoJ

DailyFX.com –

USD/JPY to Stage Larger Recovery on Hawkish Fed, Dovish BoJUSD/JPY to Stage Larger Recovery on Hawkish Fed, Dovish BoJ

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Neutral

The near-term breakout in USD/JPY may gather pace next week should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) along with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) highlight the deviating paths for monetary policy. read more

Japanese Yen Shouldn’t be Strong, but it will Likely Continue Higher

DailyFX.com –

Japanese Yen Shouldn’t be Strong, but it will Likely Continue HigherJapanese Yen Shouldn’t be Strong, but it will Likely Continue Higher

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Neutral

The near-term breakout in USD/JPY may gather pace next week should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) along with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) highlight the deviating paths for monetary policy. read more

US Dollar Slow To Respond to Risk Trends, Fed Keeping it Back?

DailyFX.com –

US Dollar Slow To Respond to Risk Trends, Fed Keeping it Back?US Dollar Slow To Respond to Risk Trends, Fed Keeping it Back?

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish

  • Debate over the timing of the Fed’s next rate hike was drowned out by China, commodities and capital markets’ plunge
  • While risk aversion is broadening, the Dollar has yet to show it is serious about resuscitating its haven appeal
  • What are the Traits of Successful Traders? See what our studies have found to be the most common pitfalls of retail FX traders.

The Dollar still carries the glow of last month’s Fed hike and there is a new – and traditionally favorable – wind blowing in the currency’s favor: risk aversion. Yet despite, the encouraging fundamental circumstances, the Greenback is showing little of the drive it had enjoyed the past few years. The equally-weighted USDollar Index has inched up to a 12-year high while the trade-weighted ICE Dollar Index is virtually unchanged. Drives for commodity-currency based majors (USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD) and the tumble in the Cable (GBPUSD) seem to have more to do with counterparts than the Dollar itself. EURUSD, the world’s most liquid currency pair, perhaps best reflects the situation with a minor anti-dollar close week-over-week. read more

Watch China, Milk for Kiwi Cues

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Watch China, Milk for Kiwi CuesWatch China, Milk for Kiwi Cues

Fundamental Forecast for the Kiwi: Bearish

The New Zealand Dollar continues to display a tight relationship with the bigger overall macro-theme of China and the larger overall threat of an Asian slowdown. Since China began their most recent descent on the heels of the December rate hike out of the Federal Reserve, the Kiwi hasn’t held up well at all. Eleven of the past twelve days have seen the Kiwi trade lower against the greenback (for a total move of -6.3%), and if we match it up with the Yen, it’s even worse – with the same 11 of 12 tally but an even larger move lower; with a full -8.45% lost against the Yen over that 12-day sequence. read more

Gold Down But Not Out as Risk Sell-off Persists- 1072 Support

DailyFX.com –

Gold Down But Not Out as Risk Sell-off Persists- 1072 SupportGold Down But Not Out as Risk Sell-off Persists- 1072 Support

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bullish

Gold prices retreated this week with the precious metal off by more than 1% to trade at 1090 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The pullback comes amid extreme volatility in broader risk assets with the major U.S. equity indices down nearly 9% since the start of 2016. Indeed gold seems to have regained its haven status in the near-term as traders seek shelter from the ongoing market turmoil and although prices were lower this week, bullion is still 2.74% in the black for 2016. read more

Gold Boosted by Softer Fed Stance- Resistance at 1130

DailyFX.com –

Gold Boosted by Softer Fed Stance- Resistance at 1130

Gold Boosted by Softer Fed Stance- Resistance at 1130

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral

Gold prices are higher this week with the precious metal rallying nearly 1.8% to trade at 1117 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The move comes amid continued volatility in broader risk markets with the FOMC rate decision fueling speculation that the central bank will likely have to delay subsequent rate hikes. Although the dollar was weaker for the majority of the session, a late-week rally took the Dow Jones FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) to fresh highs. Ongoing technical divergence however continues to suggest the greenback remains vulnerable- with bullion standing to gain from dollar softness. read more

BoJ Makes Stealth Move to Negative Rates, Pressure on to China

DailyFX.com –

BoJ Makes Stealth Move to Negative Rates, Pressure on to ChinaBoJ Makes Stealth Move to Negative Rates, Pressure on to China

Fundamental Forecast for Yen:Neutral

Confidence is a pretty important thing in a financial system. After all, in a fiat-based monetary system, all that we really have is faith. There’s no gold or silver backing the currency, and while I’m not saying that’s a ‘good’ thing since pretty much all of those regimes have failed, faith is of utter importance because, should trust wane investors may just sell out of your currency at an uncontrollable pace. This could lead to significant currency weakness as investors flock to anywhere but your currency, and all of those goods that you have to import all of the sudden begin to get very, very expensive. This is one of the reasons that negative rate-regimes have been avoided for so long: It could be potentially playing with fire (the inflationary kind). And this inflation isn’t of the ‘healthy’ variety. Just ask Russia. This even began to show signs in Canada earlier this week with reports of the Great Cauliflower Crisis; where four simple heads of Cauliflower could buy a full barrel of Oil. But this isn’t about cauliflower; we’re talking about history here. read more